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in never’80s pop star Rick Astley’s recent autobiography explains how looking back over the decades gave him a new appreciation for one of the key factors in his success. “You realize how much luck and chance are involved in your life and career,” he writes in the prologue. “You can have drive, ambition and talent, but luck also has a lot to do with it. You know, in 1987, someone wrote a three-and-a-half minute pop song. It has changed.” That’s really ridiculous. ”
This particularly resonated with me. It’s not just because I’ve always admired Astley for seeming to maintain some normalcy in a volatile industry (though… never It shows that it was more complicated than that). But it’s also because, in terms of age, we begin to understand the seemingly arbitrary nature of success. When I look back at my colleagues who have done well in their careers, it was always inevitable for some to try harder or have undisputed talent. But to others it looks like an opportunity.
I was reminded of Astley the other day after I stopped a radio interview with a writer (who will remain anonymous). Their explanations of the forces that shape writing, rattling around in a home filled with books and the stories of their parents who nurtured their love of stories, were thoroughly entertaining.
That was my flashpoint. The author missed out on the great fortune of having a huge family financial cushion to carve out time to write at a time when writer’s income is more unstable than ever. That’s not to discount their writing talent, but to appreciate it alongside their great assets. We don’t like to talk about such good fortune. Because it doesn’t match our obsession with effort and talent. Attributing all success to chance will keep everyone in bed. It’s not like a motivational poster.
Tomas Chamorro-Premzic, organizational psychologist, author Why would such an incompetent person become a leader?estimates that luck accounts for 55% of success, “defined as everything other than talent and hard work.” It includes “life’s lottery tickets” such as money, place of birth, parents, etc.
In a 2016 paper, researchers Chenwei Liu and Mark de Ronde believe that luck plays a very important role, and they examine the lottery methods employed in ancient Greece and the Republic of Venice. He mischievously proposed copying and randomly selecting corporate leaders. Small differences in skills among stars of big companies. One effect, they say, is that income inequality narrows because arbitrarily chosen leaders no longer need to be paid so highly.
Acknowledging the role of luck downplays our own specialness. Sam Friedman, co-author Born to rule: The making and remaking of the British elite.said that the people he spoke to at the top of politics, business, cultural institutions, and the professions valued talent over luck when explaining their successes. In interviews, many people deployed it as “a refrain, a linguistic device to distance themselves from proposals for deliberate or strategic career-building actions.” Rather, luck seemed to be often used as a means to frame a person’s success as resulting from spontaneous or accidental external recognition rather than calculated intention—” “I was lucky to be accepted into x” or “I was lucky to get y opportunity.” For Friedman, luck seemed to serve as a deflection from “the pursuit of power and accusations of arrogance” rather than being essential to their success.
One of the reasons we diminish the importance of luck is that it doesn’t necessarily feel like luck. Sometimes it feels normal. That means they are more likely to be born into a stable society and to be healthy and well-nourished.
Or it can be complicated. One of the biggest interruptions in my career was the death of my father. At that time, I felt really miserable. However, the legacy left me with a reduced mortgage and a few years of freelancing to explore different subjects. We explored a variety of themes, including interviews with high society parties, hip-hop moguls, and a white witch who shares spooky tips for family harmony. Christmas season. (Garlic and butter mixed into baguette. She suggested curiously. In other words, garlic bread.)
Did I want my father to be alive, to enjoy life with him, and to witness the birth of his grandchild? Yes, one million, yes. But it would be foolhardy to deny the opportunities that additional economic freedom provides.
The problem with minimizing the role of luck is that we underestimate the likelihood that luck will go in the opposite direction. The truth is that no amount of hard work or talent can completely avoid misfortune. Divorce, illness, and layoffs are the best things that can happen to us. As Astley told me over the phone, the difference between success and failure is a knife edge.
Emma Jacobs is a jobs and careers writer for the FT
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