Why China won’t mind a closure of the Strait of Hormuz

As the U.S. rained bombs and missiles on Iran’s nuclear sites on Saturday — entering the war between Israel and Iran — Beijing appears to be standing firm in its support of its long-standing ally in Tehran.

However, its support will likely be tempered by its limited heft as a peace broker in the region, and the perceived upside if oil chokepoints squeeze the U.S. more than it hurts Beijing, experts said.

Beijing has drawn closer to Iran in recent years, with the two countries cooperating regularly on military exercises and signing a 25-year strategic partnership in economic, military and security cooperation in 2021.

Iran’s population of nearly 91 million, far more than Israel’s 9.8 million people, coupled with its abundant crude oil reserves, made it a natural partner in China’s Belt and Road initiative, which the Global Times, a Beijing government mouthpiece, described as a way to “counter U.S. hegemony.”

China’s primary economic interest, however, lies in its access to Iranian oil and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most pivotal routes for global crude oil flows.

Some 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, or a fifth of global consumption, flowed through the strait in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. About half of Beijing’s oil imports moved through the key route — using a system of workarounds to bypass Western banks, shipping services and yuan-denominated transactions to avoid triggering sanctions.

That said, China will likely keep its “hands off Iran in any case,” said Neo Wang, lead China economist and strategist at Evercore ISI, due to its limited influence over Israel and its strategic calculus on Washington’s involvement in the conflict.

Beijing, embroiled in a trade war with the U.S., may find value in any chaos in the Middle East, as they would pose “a bigger distraction to Washington,” Wang added.

China had pledged to support Iran shortly after Israel’s attack on June 12, which Beijing condemned as a “violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”

But despite that initial show of support for Iran, Beijing’s rhetoric has shifted to become more measured, short of denouncing Israel’s military actions but focused on brokering dialogue and a ceasefire.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told his Israeli counterpart in a phone call that Israel’s strikes were “unacceptable,” but refrained from remarks of “condemning” them in the call.

Beijing has largely avoided “direct condemnation of Israel while remaining diplomatically aligned with Iran,” analysts at political risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group said, as it seeks to “contain the tensions and prevent spillover of the conflict to the wider region — which could affect its economic and strategic interests.”

The U.S. strikes on Iran “handed China an important talking point: It’s America, not China, that threatens the global order and peace,” said Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called for China to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.

While many expect Beijing to do just that, some suggested a blockade of the chokepoint could be favorable for China, as it stands better prepared to absorb the blow than the U.S. and European Union, and that China could easily turn to other alternative oil sources.

According to the Energy Information Administration, China’s primary oil sources are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq and Oman, although a sizable portion of Malaysia’s exports are actually relabeled or transferred from Iran.

Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said “China will be happy to see a big spike in oil prices if that destabilizes the U.S. and Europe.”

Echoing that view, Andrew Bishop, global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors, said: “China may not be that irate at paying more for oil from other sources, if it means the U.S. suffers even more.”

Answering a question on Iran’s potential closure of the strait, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson told reporters at a regular briefing Monday that it is in the international community’s shared interest to maintain stability in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waterways.

Iran’s parliament Sunday backed the decision to close the strait, pending the final approval by its national security council.

China may have hopes of acting as a peacemaker, building on its mediation of a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. But Israel will likely be skeptical of China’s neutrality as a mediator, analysts said, citing Beijing’s close ties with Iran and concerns about of provoking the Trump administration.

China’s U.N. Ambassador Cong Fu took aim at the U.S. at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Sunday, saying that the country “strongly condemns” the U.S. attacks on Iran and the bombing of nuclear facilities.

Fu also singled out Israel and called for efforts to bring an end to the hostilities. “The parties to the conflict, Israel in particular, should reach an immediate ceasefire to prevent a spiraling escalation,” Fu said, according to the readout.

Andy Rothman, founder of advisory firm Sinology LLC, said he doubted that Beijing would attempt to broker a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, but it may still be “discouraging Iran from retaliating militarily against the U.S.”

“Because that would destabilize the region and weaken the global economy, neither of which are in China’s interest,” he added.