BEIJING — At the same time as China’s enlargement of photo voltaic and wind energy raced forward in 2025, the Asian large opened many extra coal energy vegetation than it had in recent times — elevating concern about whether or not the world’s largest emitter will scale back carbon emissions sufficient to restrict local weather change.
Greater than 50 giant coal items — particular person boiler and turbine units with producing capability of 1 gigawatt or extra — had been commissioned in 2025, up from fewer than 20 a 12 months over the earlier decade, a analysis report launched Tuesday mentioned. Relying on vitality use, 1 gigawatt can energy from a number of hundred thousand to greater than 2 million properties.
Total, China introduced 78 gigawatts of new coal energy capability on-line, a pointy uptick from earlier years, in keeping with the joint report by the Centre for Analysis on Power and Clear Air, which research air air pollution and its impacts, and International Power Monitor, which develops databases monitoring vitality developments.
“The dimensions of the buildout is staggering,” mentioned report co-author Christine Shearer of International Power Monitor. “In 2025 alone, China commissioned extra coal energy capability than India did over your entire previous decade.”
On the identical time, even bigger additions of wind and photo voltaic capability nudged down the share of coal in whole energy era final 12 months. Energy from coal fell about 1% as progress in cleaner vitality sources lined all the rise in electrical energy demand final 12 months.
China added 315 gigawatts of photo voltaic capability and 119 gigawatts of wind in 2025, in keeping with statistics from the federal government’s Nationwide Power Administration.
The huge progress in wind and photo voltaic begs the query: Why is China nonetheless constructing coal energy vegetation and, by most analyses, far more than it really wants?
The reply is sophisticated.
China is at an earlier growth stage than america or Europe, so it wants extra vitality to continue to grow. If extra of the nation’s 1.4 billion folks climb into the center class, extra will be capable to afford air conditioners and washing machines.
Electrical energy is required to maintain China’s factories buzzing and to fulfill the excessive energy calls for of synthetic intelligence, a authorities precedence because it seeks to make the nation a frontrunner in expertise.
Energy shortages in components of China in 2021 and 2022 strengthened longstanding issues about vitality safety. Some factories quickly halted manufacturing and one metropolis imposed rolling blackouts.
The federal government’s response was to sign that it wished extra coal vegetation, resulting in a surge in functions and permits for his or her building.
That 2022-23 surge drove the large soar in capability final 12 months as the brand new items got here on line, mentioned Qi Qin, an analyst on the Centre for Analysis on Power and Clear Air and one other co-author of the report. “As soon as permits are issued, initiatives are tough to reverse,” she mentioned.
Building began on 83 gigawatts of coal energy final 12 months, the report mentioned, suggesting a considerable amount of new capability could come on-line this 12 months.
The federal government place is that coal supplies a secure backup to sources reminiscent of wind and photo voltaic, that are affected by climate and the time of day. The shortages in 2022 resulted partly from a drought that hit hydropower, a serious vitality supply in western China.
Coal ought to “play an essential underpinning and balancing position” for years to come back, the Nationwide Improvement and Reform Fee, the lead financial planning company, mentioned in steering issued final 12 months on making coal vegetation cleaner and extra environment friendly.
The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Affiliation, an business group, mentioned final week that coal-fired energy would stay important for power-system stability, at the same time as different sources of vitality substitute it.
The danger of constructing a lot coal-fired capability is it might delay the transition to cleaner vitality sources, Qin mentioned. Political and monetary strain could preserve vegetation working, leaving much less room for different sources of energy, she mentioned.
The report urged China to speed up retirement of growing older and inefficient coal vegetation and commit in its subsequent five-year plan, which will probably be accepted in March, to making sure that power-sector emissions don’t improve between 2025 and 2030.
“Whether or not China’s coal energy enlargement finally interprets into increased emissions will rely on … whether or not coal energy’s position is genuinely constrained to backup and supporting slightly than baseload era,” Qin mentioned.
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Related Press video journalist Olivia Zhang contributed to this report.
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