The race for MLB division titles is currently on a lull except for one team, but this is just a long, slow breather before the oncoming storm of chaos that will begin with the arrival of October.
Five of MLB’s six division leaders were at least four games ahead going into Saturday’s games with three weeks left in the regular season, and that allure is fading.
The American League East is the lone exception to division calm, with the Baltimore Orioles leading the New York Yankees by just a half-game.
The Cleveland Guardians led the AL Central and the Houston Astros led the AL West by 4.5 games each. In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies were eight games back in the East and the Milwaukee Brewers were nine games back in the Central. The Los Angeles Dodgers were a much smaller lead in the West, four games back.
Division championships aren’t must-watch right now, but that’s probably to be expected: Recent playoff history suggests that if you want championship drama, it’s best to look elsewhere.
The two wild-card teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the eventual champion Texas Rangers, met in the World Series in 2023. It was just the third time in history that two wild-card teams have faced off for the title.
That possibility only becomes more likely when the playoff is expanded to three wild-card teams in 2022. The 12-team playoff was created under a five-year collective bargaining agreement that is set to expire after the 2026 season.
In the first expansion season in 2022, the National League’s third wild card is the Philadelphia Phillies, who have turned their chances into a World Series appearance.
The theory is that wild-card teams have a greater sense of urgency. They’re in playoff mode for a longer period of time because they’re chasing the top team in their division while also smothering the wild-card threat at full speed.
This season, however, paints a slightly different picture. The loser of the division race between the Orioles and Yankees is almost certainly a wild card. The other two wild card contenders, the Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals, aren’t as threatened by the wild card contenders behind them.
In the National League, there are expected to be two wild card teams in the NL West, with the Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres currently holding the first place spot, while the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will compete for third place.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the six-team AL playoff field is essentially set, with seven of the six likely to be decided in the National League, but a run by the on-the-ball Chicago Cubs could give them the momentum they need to make a push in October.
If we go by the theory that late-season momentum is the key indicator of who is most likely to make the World Series, then the AL East race should be the most important — and not the division winner, but the team that doesn’t.
Not that the Orioles or Yankees want a three-game, win-or-lose wild-card series, but the teams in that position would start the playoffs without any delay, unlike the top two teams in each league who are exempt.
In the world of daily baseball, it’s advantageous to have no major interruptions in game time. Winning the Wild Card Series gives a boost the division winners don’t get.
Sounds silly? Sure. But that’s exactly what happened last season.
The Rangers swept the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles to open the playoffs with five straight wins to clinch a spot in the American League Championship Series. The Diamondbacks swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card round and won their first five playoff games before sweeping the Dodgers in the National League Series. The 2022 Phillies followed the same path.
NFL teams may be happy to accept a playoff bye, but MLB teams will likely accept it with some trepidation.
Look at the final three weeks of the regular season to see which teams have the most momentum and which teams have the healthiest pitching staffs.
