CNN
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President Donald Trump’s push to pass his massive agenda in the Senate is hanging by thread as GOP leaders barrel toward a critical vote this weekend that, as of Friday night, is still short of the support to pass.
Just hours after Senate Majority Leader John Thune informed senators they would take a critical first vote on Saturday, a key GOP centrist senator warned he would vote against proceeding to the package unless there are major changes – and several other holdouts are uncertain on how they’ll land.
That warning shot came from Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who is up for reelection next November and has been one of the most vocal critics of the Medicaid cuts used to help pay for Trump’s tax cuts and spending cuts package.
Speaking to reporters Friday, Tillis again raised concerns over the bill’s “fundamentals” and cuts to Medicaid and suggested his vote wouldn’t change unless the measure “transforms radically overnight.”
Losing Tillis on Saturday’s expected procedural vote – which will be closely watched by Trump – would be a major blow to Senate GOP leaders, who can only afford to lose three Republican votes to advance the bill.
Thune and GOP leaders have spent months building to this moment, racing to draft the bill as quickly as possible in an effort to ensure Trump’s agenda is on his desk by the Fourth of July.
If the bill fails its first procedural vote on Saturday, GOP leaders will have to retool the package, amounting to a huge setback for Trump. And it’s not just about that Independence Day timeline: GOP leaders fear that any delay in passing Trump’s agenda would embolden the party’s critics to seek more changes – which could lead their fragile coalition to fall apart.
Already, outspoken fiscal hawk Sen. Rand Paul is planning to vote against it over the plan’s inclusion of a $5 trillion debt-limit increase. And Tillis is not the only Republican threatening to oppose the bill over the proposed cuts to Medicaid. Sens. Josh Hawley, Lisa Murkowski, Jerry Moran and Susan Collins have all made similar remarks as they’ve worked with leadership to trim those provisions.
But simply restoring that Medicaid funding may not be enough to win Thune those votes on the floor – it could also cost him votes among Senate GOP hardliners. Sen. Ron Johnson has railed on how the bill is projected to balloon the budget deficit, and another fiscal hawk, Sen. Mike Lee, has suggested he and Johnson along with Sen. Rick Scott could vote as a bloc on Saturday. None have yet to say how they’ll vote on the key initial procedural vote Saturday.
If all goes to plan, Senate leaders will land the 51 GOP votes to formally begin debating Trump’s agenda and then tee up one of the chamber’s storied traditions: a series of round-the-clock amendment votes known as vote-a-rama. Democrats will use this overnight session to push on any number of GOP weak points on the bill, particularly Medicaid and other safety net programs.
The Senate could then vote on final passage sometime in the middle of the night Saturday or Sunday morning. And if successful, the House would return mid-week to take up the bill with the hope of Trump signing it at the White House on July 4.
One of the biggest hurdles for Republicans is the race to rewrite text in compliance with the Senate’s complex budget rules, which are governed by the nonpartisan parliamentarian.
In recent days, the parliamentarian has ruled against key GOP provisions – from the so-called provider tax, which helps states fund their Medicaid programs to some provisions of a government spectrum auction. That forces the Senate GOP to dial back those provisions, or else Trump’s bill would be subject to a Democratic filibuster.
Several Republicans said Friday night they need to see the final bill text – which has not been released – before judging whether they would open debate on the sweeping measure.
“I don’t have the bill, how can I vote on something I don’t know” what’s in it, Johnson said.
Hawley, who has been deeply concerned about Medicaid cuts, also said the vote hinges on what’s in the bill: “Got to see the text.”
Senate GOP leaders hope to release a mostly final version of the bill Friday night or Saturday morning, but the full version may not be ready before the anticipated Saturday vote to open debate, since the Senate Finance Committee is still furiously working to make sure its language complies with the budget rules. The Finance provisions are key because of both tax and health provisions – specifically, Medicaid.
“I still don’t have final language from Finance yet, which obviously is of tremendous concern to me given the Medicaid provisions,” Collins said.
Multiple GOP senators dismissed concerns about speeding ahead with the vote without final text in hand.
“We discussed this thing ad nauseam,” Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno said, estimating that Republicans have met on this bill for “thousands” of hours so far this year. “The final tax is not out. But we know where we are going.”
Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri added: “When you have legislation like this, you’re going to have things you need to work through until the very end.”
This story has been updated with additional details.
CNN’s Lauren Fox, Nicky Robertson and David Wright contributed to this report.
