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A guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world.
Donald Trump’s victory gave the Republican Party its highest share of the popular vote in 20 years. It also revealed major changes in America’s electoral districts, from Democrats’ reliance on wealthy, college-educated voters to the power of issues like immigration.
Low Democratic turnout also hurt Kamala Harris’ chances, reducing her support from traditional left-wing voting groups such as Hispanic and black voters.
The results also show that poorer and less educated voters now think the Republican Party best represents them, an increase from 12 years ago when Democrat Barack Obama was president. is reversed.
A closer look at the data yields five takeaways:
Support for the Democratic Party depends on high-income voters
Economic restructuring has been underway for some time, but this election has accelerated it further. The Democratic Party now appears to be the party of high-income people, not low-income people.
For the first time in decades, Democrats received more support from Americans in the top third of the income bracket than from the poor, according to an analysis of FT voter surveys.
In contrast to 2020, a majority of low-income households and households with annual incomes of less than $50,000 voted for Trump this election. Conversely, people who earn more than $100,000 voted for Harris, according to exit polls.
At the same time, Trump enjoyed enduring support from voters without degrees, with nearly two-thirds reporting they voted for the former president. exit polling NBC News reported in 10 states.
Maybe immigration drove voters to Trump.
a Gallup poll Before the election, U.S. voters believed immigration was the most important issue facing the country, with 55% saying immigrants were a “significant threat” to the United States.
Tuesday’s results show how damaging the issue has been for Harris, who was criticized by President Trump for making record numbers of border crossings under the Biden administration.
Some of the areas most affected by the former president were along the southwestern U.S. border, including Hidalgo and Zapata counties in Texas and Santa Cruz County in Arizona.
In Texas, Mr. Trump succeeded in flipping four counties on the U.S.-Mexico border that had voted for Democratic presidential candidates since the 1970s.
Trump has taken over the suburbs and cities are less democratic
Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 was largely due to strong Democratic turnout in the suburbs of battleground states, including a blue wave in the predominantly white suburbs of Pennsylvania and Georgia; It includes both majority-white neighborhoods and majority-Latino areas of Phoenix. Tucson, Arizona.
But on Tuesday, Mr. Trump won more votes than Ms. Harris everywhere outside the big cities, including the suburbs. In metropolitan areas, Democrats lost more than 1 million votes compared to 2020, according to an FT analysis of results.
The rural-urban divide has become an increasingly entrenched aspect of American politics, but this election saw a sharp decline in support for Democrats in major cities, while continued redness in rural areas.
Areas with a majority of Hispanic residents tilted toward President Trump.
Days before the election, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made disparaging remarks about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally, casting doubt on the Republican candidate’s ability to appeal to Latino voters.
But the results showed that Latinos and other nonwhite voters were increasingly drawn to Mr. Trump. This change could have a lasting impact, given that Latinos are one of the fastest growing ethnic groups in the United States.
Even in liberal enclaves like Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s most populous battleground state, voters lean toward Mr. Trump in areas with large Hispanic populations, according to an FT analysis of municipal data. This was despite Harris winning overall.
In Texas, some of the biggest moves against Trump also came from Hispanic-majority counties, such as Starr County on the U.S.-Mexico border, where the population is more than 96% Hispanic.
Mr. Trump also successfully flipped Florida’s most populous county, majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade County, for the first time since 1988.
Low Democratic turnout underscored the trend toward Trump.
Not all of the national swing toward Trump was due to increased support for the Republican Party.
New York lost 12 points to Trump in 2024, but fewer than 190,000 more people voted for Trump than in 2020. But 800,000 fewer people in the state voted for Harris than for Biden. Illinois and Ohio followed similar trends.
Pennsylvania was the only battleground state where Democrats received more votes than Trump. The party also gained votes in Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina, but only by 300 votes in North Carolina.
Harris’ efforts to increase voter turnout have certainly produced some results, with current estimates showing that the percentage of voters eligible to vote has increased in all but two battleground states. are.
Additional reporting by Radhika Rukmangadhan in New York and Alan Smith in London
