Aurora chasers, get ready! There’s a good chance we’ll see some nice light shows by the end of the week.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are highlighting the possibility of severe magnetic storms on Thursday (October 10) and Friday (October 11). This storm could possibly fall into the G4 class, or the second highest in the world. SWPC magnetic storm scaleconsider both severity and potential impact.
In fact, SWPC has issued a G4 magnetic storm warning. This is the second time since 2005. The other order was issued in May of this year, before the storm hit. An incredibly dramatic aurora phenomenon has occurred.
Who is the culprit? From another big explosion solar.
On Tuesday night (October 8th), sunspot AR 3848 produced a strong X1.8 class. solar flare. X flare is most powerful type This caused radio interference throughout the sunlit areas of Earth. SWPC forecasters analyzed the flare using data collected by the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and determined it was accompanied by a flare. coronal mass ejection (CME), a giant eruption of solar particles and magnetic fields. And that CME is headed toward Earth, and is expected to cause a powerful geomagnetic storm when it collides with us.
“If the two magnets have the same polarity, [you] If you try to put them together, they will repel. If opposites are connected, the magnets will stay together. It’s the same thing here,” SWPC Service Coordinator Sean Dahl said at a press conference on Wednesday, October 9th.
“If the CME’s magnetic field is the same as Earth’s, there will be an initial effect on the geomagnetic response and it will soon strengthen, but it will probably not reach such a severe level, or potentially more. “Yes,” Dahl added. “If it is well connected as it passes through, or changes to that configuration as it passes through, we will escalate our response. We will escalate our response to that level of activity because that is where the true potential emerges. Once reached, a warning and subsequent alert can be issued.” ”
Related: Worst solar storm ever
SWPC forecasters say the CME is hurtling toward Earth at a speed of 2.7 million to 2.9 million miles per hour (4.3 million to 4.7 million kilometers per hour). They say this is the fastest speed they’ve seen recently. Mr. Dahl said. It could collide with Earth’s magnetic field as early as Thursday morning.
“This is a shock front that’s going to hit here on Earth first, and it’s like a strong cold front that’s going to cross the United States. All of a sudden, there’s going to be huge winds, but it might be a while before we see the extreme cold.” It’s the same with these CMEs,” Dahl said.
“Strengthen by the arrival of the impact front and an immediate jump in speed”[ing] Dahl added: “The strongest parts of the magnetic field, such as extremely cold temperatures, may not appear for a while, because that’s when some of the field rolls through.” earth. For those who are watching it, you can see that we have arrived, and then things seem to be calming down, but they are not. Magnetic clouds can still pass over Earth, so keep that in mind. ”
Strong geomagnetic storms can disrupt radio communications and power grids, and even damage orbit. satellite. But they also auroraalso called aurora borealis and southern lights, are usually more visible at lower latitudes.
But auroras always come with uncertainty. Forecasters say that if the upcoming geomagnetic storm strengthens and progresses into the evening, observers in the Middle Eastern states, lower Midwest and Northern California may have a chance to see the aurora borealis. To keep up with how things are progressing, you can monitor the SWPC website and use tools such as: Weather forecast in 30 minutes And keep an eye out for true reporting on social media.
“We must be ready to move and monitor our web pagethat real time solar wind Especially,” Dahl said. “Stay alert and subscribe to live alerts to know when activity is taking place. What you’re looking for is the enhanced magnetic field we’re expecting and its direction. If it stays north, it’s less likely to go further south. But when it goes to the other side of the globe, what we call the southerly direction, that’s when things spin quickly. and the aurora is most likely to occur.”
Forecasters also emphasized that no two storms are the same, and there is still much to be determined about this storm as it approaches Earth.
“Is this going to be a global phenomenon or are we seeing it all across the United States? Storm in May?,” Dahl said. “It’s hard to say until we understand it better. We really need to get to the G5 level for that to happen again, but we have a chance.”
