aAs some of you may know, this will be my last regular post on Nasdaq.com, marking the end of a journey that began exactly 12 years ago, on June 20, 2012. It’s been a long time, so I’d like to take some time today to look back on those 12 years and compile some of my scribbles for those of you who manage your own accounts, but I hope you readers will forgive my selfishness.
I started writing Market Thinkinga daily commentary and opinion piece that I launched after contributing occasional pieces for about a year. Looking back, that first Market Musings article is representative of what I’ve been trying to do for years: to step away from the emotion that often accompanies investing, challenge conventional wisdom, and encourage logical analysis.
In it, I wrote about the general mood of pessimism that permeated the commentary at the time: after a year or so of strong gains in the major stock indexes, everyone was expecting a crash. I said then that these gains didn’t have to end soon because they were being driven by quantitative easing — regular, large injections of money into the system by the Federal Reserve.
I never imagined that policy would still be in place a decade later, but I ended the article with the words, “Don’t fight the Fed.” Following that advice would have gone a long way, given that the S&P 500 closed that day at 1643.58 (it’s currently at about 5500 as of this writing).
it is, Market Thinking The most important thing I want readers to take away from my thoughts over the past 12 years is to stay invested.
That said, I understand that when times get tough, most investors will have no choice but to make some changes to their accounts, and I have written several articles about what to do in those situations: lowering risk in certain situations and adding “insurance” to your portfolio, or adding inverse index ETFs or other things that will actually generate profits on the downside, but for a short period of time and within predefined parameters.
Their main purpose is to satisfy a desire to do something. something Even when stock prices are falling, it’s important to continue investing in preparation for the inevitable recovery that will come at some point.
The same “stick with it” advice was repeated with regards to several individual stocks. Over the years, I have held an overwhelmingly bullish view on several major stocks, including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google/Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA), all of which outperformed the market during this period, even as perceptions of their value and price have changed rather dramatically over the years.
Google is perhaps the best example. In October 2013, I wrote that investors should hold on to their shares when the stock was near what seemed at the time to be a natural high of around $1,000. Subsequent splits mean that $1,000 is now worth around $23. Obviously, GOOG closed yesterday at just over $185, so you would have done pretty well if you held on.
The key is that if a company is well-run and is on the frontline of major disruptions to the economy and society at large, it cannot afford to succumb to the shifting winds of public opinion.
Then there’s Bitcoin (BTC). I started writing about this cryptocurrency in 2014 and was skeptical at first, but I soon realized that the debate over its intrinsic value was largely irrelevant from a trader or investor’s perspective. When an inherently limited supply meets a growing demand, the price of the traded commodity rises. And that’s what was happening with Bitcoin.
My defense of Bitcoin and the potential of the blockchain technology behind it was more controversial at the time than it seems now, and drew extreme outrage and even death threats, but I would have been fine if I had bought at around $500 back then and held on through the volatility (for those keeping track, it’s around $60,000 today).
This is not to say or imply that everything I’ve written over the last 12 years is the absolute truth. God only knows that I’ve made my fair share of mistakes and proposed deals that probably wouldn’t have worked out. But what I tried to do was to educate and entertain my readers, and if I’ve done that, I’ll be happy.
Finally, I want to thank the editors and content managers at Nasdaq.com once again for believing in me from the beginning and making all of this possible. Your wisdom and insight have made me a better writer, and for that I’ll always be grateful. But most of all, I want to thank you, my readers. I don’t think I could have done this without you, but it would all be a little less meaningful if I had.
Remember, question everything, do your own research, and keep investing.
cheers,
Martin
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
