After an unprecedented 15 consecutive months of global warming records, the Earth finally took a brief break. September wasn’t a new record-breaker.
Still, it was the second warmest September on record dating back to 1880. And today the United Nations announced. report He said there remained a wide gap between what countries pledged to do to limit further global warming and what they actually did.
The earth’s heat also eases a little.
August was the warmest month on record, but September seems to have finally brought about a gradual change. by NASA calculationsEarth’s average surface temperature was 1.26 degrees Celsius, or about 2.27 degrees Fahrenheit, above the long-term average for the months of 1951 to 1980. This is a tenth of a degree lower than the record-breaking record set in September 2023.
Here’s how September temperatures have varied from the long-term average since 1880, when NASA started keeping records. As the graph shows, September 2023 was the warmest ever on record. In September of this year, there was not much difference between the second place and the second place. (Credit: NASA Climate)
Today, NOAA unique analysisyields essentially the same result. NOAA also points out Year-to-date, global average temperatures have been the highest on record for this time of year, with North America, South America, Europe, and Africa each ranking first. (Both agencies delayed publication of their monthly reports after Hurricane Helen caused significant damage to infrastructure and impacted global data collection efforts. Asheville, North Carolina)
in spite of, Although there has been a long-awaited end to the hot streak, 2024 as a whole is still almost certain to break the record for the hottest year on record.
“Now that September data is in (belatedly), the latest forecast is that 2024 will almost certainly be a new record for annual surface temperatures, perhaps by more than 0.1 degrees Celsius.” I wrote NASA’s Gavin Schmidt speaks to the Bluesky social media platform. He also said there is a 50% chance that average surface temperatures this year will be 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial temperatures.
This is how far global temperatures have departed from their pre-industrial averages of 1880-1899. (Gray indicates the range of uncertainty.) NASA’s 2024 forecast is shown in green. This is clearly higher than all previous years. (Credit: NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, via Bluesky Social)
This is important. paris agreementnearly every country in the world (including the United States) is committed to limiting anthropogenic global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or less. Every tenth of a degree of warming is important. Moreover, it exceeds the standard of 1.5 degrees. will probably bring More frequent heat waves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rains and floods. Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered, moving the Earth system from a relatively stable state to a dramatically different one, with potentially disastrous consequences.
In fact, we have already experienced a 12-month period in which the Earth’s average surface temperature exceeded a threshold. It will occur from July 2023 to June 2024, and the global average temperature will be 1.64 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900. As calculated By the European Copernicus Climate Change Service.
However, it is premature to declare the Paris Agreement a failure. That goal is measured over 10 years. Over short periods of time, such as a few months or even a year, natural climate fluctuations cause temperatures to rise and fall. And in fact, until recently, temperatures were rising due to the El Niño phenomenon. El Niño is currently weakening and La Niña is cooling. likely to develop During the period from September to November.
However, the United Nations report says that in the long term, we are still far from limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the long term. in fact, Greenhouse gas emissions rose to a new high of 57.1 billion tons in 2023 (Carbon dioxide equivalent value“).
To stay below the threshold, emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases must be reduced quickly and significantly. 7.5% reduction annually until 2035. “Current commitments fall far short of these levels, putting us on track for 2.6°C, the highest global warming this century, and requiring large-scale, costly carbon removal in the future.” Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, said in the report’s foreword.
She makes a poignant plea to international delegations scheduled to gather in Azerbaijan next month for UN climate talks. “Please stop blowing hot air.”
