Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party risks losing majority in elections, media poll reveals By Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s ruling party could lose its majority in the lower house of parliament, leaving it dependent on coalition partner Komeito to stay in power, according to media polls ahead of the Oct. 27 general election. This means that there is a high possibility that it will be necessary.

The newspaper reported on Thursday that the Liberal Democratic Party may fall short of the 233 seats needed for a full majority of the 465-seat majority. The Liberal Democratic Party has had sole control of the chamber since returning to power in 2012 after three years in opposition.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government already relies on Komeito for a majority in the House of Councilors. Greater reliance on a more powerful lower house could give the group, which is backed by Japan’s largest Buddhist lay organization, a greater say in policy-making.

“I think the Liberal Democratic Party, along with the Komeito party in the coalition, will cover the necessary majority,” said Michael Cucek, a political science professor at Temple University in Tokyo.

He added that if the LDP were to rely on Komeito for a majority, it would further increase the influence of a party that has pushed back on some of the LDP’s more hawkish security policies in the past.

Komeito accepts policies such as providing long-range missiles to the Japanese military and lifting arms export restrictions that prevent Tokyo from supplying weapons to Ukraine and Southeast Asian countries opposed to China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea. In particular, it is not as active as the Liberal Democratic Party.

According to media reports, Nobuyuki Baba, leader of the Japan Restoration Party, the third-largest faction in the House of Representatives, has not ruled out the possibility of cooperating with the Liberal Democratic Party after the election. He said he supports expanding Japan’s military power and also supports amending Japan’s pacifist constitution to formally recognize the military.

The Nikkei Shimbun announced that the national opinion poll, conducted jointly with the Yomiuri Shimbun, received responses from 165,820 people randomly contacted by phone on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A TBS poll released Wednesday showed the Liberal Democratic Party could lose about 30 seats, while Komeito could lose a few seats. Another poll of more than 150,000 people released by Kyodo News on Wednesday also found it difficult for the Liberal Democratic Party to secure a majority.

Ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives on October 9 and called a snap general election.

He took over as party leader last month after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, ended his three-year tenure as prime minister due to public distrust stemming from a series of funding scandals involving LDP politicians.