Donald Trump appears to be “deeply conflicted”, says international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn.
“He’s gone from telling the Israelis not to get involved, not to strike, a few months ago and the Israelis looked like they’d been put back in their box.
“Then the Israelis deciding to do it anyway and Donald Trump sort of said: ‘Well, actually, I knew about it and it’s not that bad an idea’.
“And now he’s saying that the Iranians have to surrender unconditionally.
“The impression you get is that he’s being led by the nose by Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.”
The Israeli leader will be telling the US president it is his moment, encouraging him to use American bunker busting bombs to finish off Iran’s nuclear programme, says Waghorn.
“What the Israelis are saying to the Americans is: ‘Look, we’ve done most of the work, but if you want to take the glory at the end of this, all you have to do is authorise that mission by a B-2 bomber.'”
On the other hand, the MAGA wing of the Republican Party don’t want to be sucked into conflicts in the Middle East.
“I think if you have to put money on it, you’d expect him to do something.”
Waghorn continues: “Simply because it will allow him to claim glory and also, I think he’ll have planners around him saying ‘you’ve got to reassert America’s deterrence’.”
And whatever he does, Trump knows Republicans will fall in line behind him.
How would Iran respond?
Iran has threatened to “set the Gulf afire” by firing missiles at American and allied interests and bases in the region, says Waghorn.
“It’s a risk for all of us because a fifth of the world’s oil comes through the Persian Gulf. If they close the Strait of Hormuz or turn it into a war zone, that’s obviously going to have a dramatic impact fairly quickly on the global economy.”
But Trump worries the Iranians because he’s “a totally unpredictable wildcard”, Waghorn says.
“I suspect they will try and retaliate in a way that doesn’t draw America fully back in, but it’s hard to see how you do that.”
Their preference would be to draw the US into a diplomatic game, but they can’t do that while the Israelis are still bombing.
Michael Clarke adds that damage to the Iranian regime’s nuclear programme wouldn’t undermine the regime itself, but dismantling the Iranian Revolutionary Guards would.
As for the people of Iran, they will be motivated to see the regime end, says Waghorn.
“If you’re an Iranian, you’ve seen your regime brutally repress an uprising and do terrible things to largely your daughters, wives, mothers, sisters, either on the streets of Iran’s cities or its jails.
“Then you’ve seen it spend billions on a defensive strategy that on both those accounts, far away and also back at home, has now gone up in smoke. So there is nothing to make you believe in this regime.”
The ayatollah’s might be toppled, but the military is too embedded and Iranians don’t want to see a violent uprising, adds Waghorn.
