Knockout football is about to begin at Euro 2024, and our football betting expert, Jones Knowes, is here to offer his insight and predictions on the matches.
Switzerland vs Italy, Saturday, 5pm
When it comes to European Championship knockout matches, my advice is not to be afraid to bet on a draw. Since Euro 1996, those who have bet on a draw in this competition have made a very healthy profit at stake levels. An astonishing 45% of knockout matches in that period have ended in a draw. 19/10 odds on Sky Bet This game will go into overtime, and that’s a reasonable bet.
Those looking for a better bet should keep an eye on Italy’s corner kicks, where the odds look favourable.
Manager Luciano Spalletti is likely to use the 3-5-2 formation he deployed against Croatia, which suits key players such as Nicolo Barella and Alessandro Bastoni, who have performed very well in this system for Inter Milan.
It’s a style of play that encourages the wide players to push forward and cross deeper, which increases the chances of winning corner kicks. The two wing-backs, Federico Di Marco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, won 70 corner kicks between them in Serie A last season. Di Marco averaged 1.65 corner kicks per game, more than only two other players in the league.
Italy won 11 games against Croatia using a 3-5-2 system, so Sky Bet 11/8 on 6+ lines is amazing.
Predicted score: 1-1 (Italy wins on penalties) | How to bet: Italy to win 6 or more corners (11/8 with Sky Bet – place your bet here!)
Germany vs Denmark, Saturday, 8 p.m.
This seems like a great matchup for Germany. They remain a team to be wary of when it comes to going all the way, as they have a weakness against teams that play with quick transitions and speed in wide areas. Denmark, however, is not that team. They are an older team and lack imagination, especially up front. It would be a surprise if this vibrant Germany doesn’t deliver after 90 minutes.
Antonio Rudiger is no doubt relishing the atmosphere in his home country, playing for Julian Nagelsmann’s attack-minded team.
He’s a bit of a showman, isn’t he? And he’s already made two impressive shots from distance this tournament.
Antonio Rüdiger has a 100/1 chance of scoring from outside the box
He’s not afraid to take shots from long range: in his final season at Chelsea, he took 20 shots from outside the box, six of which were on target. 15/2 on Sky Bet A bet on him scoring from outside the box paid off in Germany’s win over Scotland, and with odds of 100/1 on him scoring from outside the box, it’s a bet for dreamers.
Score prediction: 3-1 | How to bet: Antonio Rudiger will score from outside the box (15/2 with Sky Bet – bet here!) & Rudiger will score from outside the box (100/1 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
England v Slovakia, Sunday, 5pm
England face a similar opponent to those they faced in the group stage so expect a similar sequence: a safe but painful game to watch, but Gareth Southgate’s men will probably find a way to win a boring, low-scoring game.
A penalty that should have been scored looks like a runner to me. 5/2 on Sky Bet England are by far the best team in the tournament in terms of the number of penalty shootout wins, but they are yet to win a penalty shootout.
England have won 35 penalties in just 97 games since Gareth Southgate took over as manager – a very high rate.
Take last year’s Premier League for example. The team with the highest percentage of penalties won per 90 minutes was Chelsea, who won 12 penalties in 38 games for a ratio of 0.32 per 90 minutes. England under Southgate won 0.35 penalties per 90 minutes, and this is from a larger sample size of matches. This is skill.
And with a tricky forward line capable of winning fouls, England have been one of the most potent weapons under the manager.
Meanwhile, a defensively-tight Slovakia has already conceded a penalty against Romania in this tournament and two in the qualifiers.
The numbers show that a penalty is still more likely to be scored, but Sky Bet’s odds don’t reflect that. If you take into account Harry Kane’s penalty record, this bet is closer to 7/4 than 5/2. And of course there’s also the guarantee that the Slovak penalty will be scored in your favour.
Predicted score: 1-0 | How to bet: Penalties to score (5/2 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
Spain v Georgia, Sunday, 8 p.m.
When the final whistle blew after Spain’s 7-1 qualifier win over Georgia, what did you think the odds were that this match would make the last-16 of the tournament? Maybe one in a million?
Spain defeated Georgia 10-2 on aggregate, taking 53 shots to Georgia’s 13.
It’s no wonder that Sky Bet gives Spain 1/7 odds of winning after 90 minutes.
Not that they’re going to play Spain, but it’s hard to ignore how free-swinging this is for Georgia, who play with such vigour and fluency in attack that they become runners-up to add to the score.
They have scored in 13 of their last 15 games, including both against Spain, and with Kvica Kvaratskeria and Georges Mikhautadze both looking good, the odds of both teams scoring are sky-high at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 4-1 | How to bet: Both Teams to Score (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
France v Belgium, Monday, 5pm
I’ve been disappointed with both teams so far, but the tournament could start here for both of them. They’re hard to read.
But what is clear is that Belgium’s back four, particularly Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen, will struggle to cope with Kylian Mbappe. This could be the deciding factor.
If Belgium have any hope of progressing, they will have to revamp France’s finishing and hope Kevin De Bruyne can continue the form he has shown so far in the tournament.
He plays as a roaming number 10 and is the heart and soul of the team. Big events like this are made for players like him and what stands out here is the target price of his shots. 10/11 on Sky Bet Considering how aggressive he is on the back line and that he has already had five shots on goal in the tournament, getting a shot on goal seems like a big thing.
Score prediction: 2-1 | Betting angle: Kevin De Bruyne on goal (10/11 with Sky Bet – place your bet here!)
Portugal vs Slovenia, Monday, 8pm
Forget Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal’s main man is Bruno Fernandes.
Portugal would be better if Roberto Martinez could figure that out. Ronaldo has scored just one goal, not from the penalty spot, in Portugal’s last 11 major international matches and he is becoming a problem and a supporting player.
Fernandes, on the other hand, is in the prime of his career and in the qualifiers he proved to be key to Portugal’s success on the big stage. He contributed 14 goals and started both games in the group stage, scoring in one of them. I expect him to perform well in the knockout stages. The match against Slovenia is looking very one-sided. Sky Bet’s odds of 11/4 for Fernandes to score in Portugal’s victory look good.
Predicted score: 2-0 | Betting angle: Bruno Fernandes to score for Portugal (11/4 with Sky Bet – place your bet here!)
Romania vs. Netherlands, Tuesday, 5 p.m.
Denzel Dumfries has provided 11 assists in his last 22 international appearances but is significantly undervalued in the Sky Bet market.
Considering how popular the Netherlands are and their expected goal return of at least two goals, the odds of 9/2 for Dumfries to assist a goal are really attractive. These odds imply around an 18% probability, but given the data and how dangerous Dumfries is on the right flank for the Netherlands, I think it’s closer to 30%.
Score prediction: 0-2 | Betting angle: Denzil Dumfries to record an assist (9/2 with Sky Bet – place your bet here!)
Austria vs. Türkiye, Tuesday, 8 p.m.
For bettors like me who bet on Austria before the tournament, the next two weeks should be exciting. What was an 80/1 bet is now 16/1. Ralf Rangnick’s team has not only proven themselves, but they have dropped into the weaker half of the draw after topping their group with some fearless football.
The clash with Turkey here could very well be the match of the tournament. It looks set to be beautiful chaos.
Austria will press hard and fast, but Turkey will have a strong attacking line that is full of strong personalities and is allowed to express itself, while two error-prone defences are at the back. Goals and cards are in the cards.
With the overcards line on your side, you should be a favourable pick in the knockout rounds. Since Euro 1996, the average number of cards per 90 minutes in the knockouts has been a whopping 4.76, and in the last 16 matches of the past two Euros, 13 of the 16 matches have seen 3.5 or more cards. Combine 2.5 goals or more here and 40 or more booking points in the bet builder and you’ve got a 6/4 shot with Sky Bet.
