If you live in Southern California, you can expect the ground to start shaking at any time, as the region is prone to earthquakes.
But you might be surprised to know that this isn’t the only place in the country where the ground can and has begun to shake. Central Virginia and the South Carolina Lowcountry, for example, are areas that are or could be the next big earthquake hotspots.
It is these unexpected hot spots that can cause the most pain, as residents and buildings are not prepared for possible damage.
Predicting Unexpected Earthquakes
Charleston, South Carolina was hit by a devastating earthquake in 1886 that had effects all the way into Wisconsin. By today’s standards, this massive earthquake measured 7.3 on the Richter scale, killing 60 people and causing $186 million in damages. Although the Richter scale didn’t exist back then, we can look at the amount of damage earthquakes caused and estimate their magnitude.
Revised National Earthquake Hazard Model First, it examines the type of earthquake that can occur at a particular location (called the “seismic hazard model”) and then, based on the available fault lines, it highlights the probability of an earthquake occurring at different locations (called the “seismic rupture forecast”).
Researchers are also investigating liquefaction, a condition in which a past earthquake can shake up groundwater, softening the ground and making it more susceptible to damage.
read more: Animals can sense earthquakes before they happen. Can they help predict disasters?
How scientists identify new fault lines
According to Mark PetersenThe report’s author, John Myers, a research geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Seismic Hazards Program, said the number of places where earthquakes have occurred in the past came as a surprise: Researchers found that 75 percent of the U.S. has records of potentially damaging earthquakes in the past.
“That means there’s a good chance of at least minor damage across this large area, which is something I didn’t expect,” Petersen said.
Additionally, the report uses more extensive geological data than researchers have used before, leading to more accurate reporting on the likelihood of future earthquakes. The report includes 350 new Cons — cracks in the Earth’s crust that can lead to seismic activity. Earthquakes can vary greatly in size, from a few millimeters to thousands of kilometers, but researchers can learn a lot about these areas that may be at risk for future earthquakes.
read more: 20 things you didn’t know about earthquakes
The Importance of Earthquake Prediction
The San Andreas Fault is the most likely location for the next big earthquake, as no major earthquake has occurred since 1857. However, that doesn’t mean other areas haven’t been the subject of other research. Large earthquakes have occurred in the following locations: Mineral, VirginiaOn August 23, 2011, millions of people across the country felt an unexpected tremor measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale.
Mineral is a small town with a small population, so no one was killed, but the damage was more than $200 million. The earthquake also caused extensive damage to the Washington Monument, located more than two hours away by car.
“People, especially in the eastern U.S., don’t understand that there’s a risk of earthquakes,” Petersen says.
Another earthquake this year in New Jersey was also felt across a wide area of the eastern U.S. Petersen said earthquakes in the eastern and central U.S. are felt over a wider area than those in the West, and once one has happened, it can and will happen again.
The benefit of looking at unexpected locations where earthquakes might occur is that locals can adjust building codes to better withstand a big one — after all, even experts can’t know for sure where the next quake will hit or how big it will be.
read more: An unexpected disaster
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Sarah Novak is a science journalist based in South Carolina. In addition to contributing to Discover magazine, her work has also appeared in Scientific American, Popular Science, New Scientist, Sierra Magazine, and Astronomy Magazine. She holds a Bachelor’s in Journalism from the University of Georgia’s Grady School of Journalism and is a Master’s candidate in Science Writing at Johns Hopkins University (Class of 2023).
