Climate change could double temperature-related deaths in the US by mid-century

Heatstroke deaths are rising in the United States, but how bad will it be in 20, 30, or 40 years? Scientists are now getting an idea.

It is estimated that more than 8,000 people currently die each year in the United States from extreme temperatures. That number could double or even triple.The main cause is heat, researchers reported on September 20th. JAMA Network Open.

“As the climate warms, heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity, and it’s important to understand how this affects our health,” said Sameed Katana, a cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania.. Our bodies can tolerate sweltering heat, but as temperatures rise this capacity is pushed to its limits (SN: 6/21/24).

Catana and his colleagues looked at two hypotheses: one in which greenhouse gas emissions grow less, and the other in which they found more growth (SN: January 7, 2020First, the researchers estimated the number of deaths associated with extreme temperatures in the present using the monthly number of extreme warm days and monthly number of deaths from 2008 to 2019. Then, using previously made projections of temperature and population size several decades into the future, the team estimated the number of deaths associated with extreme temperatures in the mid-21st century for each hypothetical future.

The team concluded that between 2036 and 2065, the number of annual deaths could double in a future with low emissions growth and triple in a future with high emissions growth.

The researchers noted that the largest increases in deaths were among older adults, non-Hispanic black adults, Hispanic adults, and adults living in urban areas.SN: 4/8/24While this could be due to population growth, Katana said, “areas with larger ethnic minority populations also have, on average, lower tree cover and less access to air conditioning, which affects the temperature people experience.”