Last week wasn’t a good week for old-school neocons. At least some Democrats reportedly accused Vice President Kamala Harris’ decision to campaign with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), a war hawk extraordinaire and the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, the neocon dark lord. was defeated in the election. President-elect Donald Trump is excluded It will bring back two of its most hawkish advisers, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. Turbohawk Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) reportedly said He has no intention of working in the government.
And on Sunday morning, one of Trump’s sons, Donald Trump Jr.officially approved It called for “maximum pressure to keep all neoconservatives and war hawks out of the Trump administration.” No wonder former President George W. Bush’s book David Frum says so.axis of evil“The speech is I’m complaining now This means that the second Trump administration may abandon “the pretense of loyalty to the United States.”
However, the Trump administration may still end up pursuing the same Middle East policy that neoconservatives desired. Two former officials who are passionate about regime change movements in the region involved During the transition to the second Trump administration. Brian Hook is in charge of the transition at the State Department. Joel Rayburn is “expected” to serve on the National Security Council. According to to politiko. Representative Elisa Stefanik (R-New York) promised A new “MAXIMUM PRESSURE campaign against Iran” has reportedly been launched. offered a job Ambassador to the United Nations. And many of Trump’s new Cabinet nominees are lesser-known but similarly aggressive hawks.
President Trump’s China policy (Renewed trade war) and Ukraine (military aid decreases) His approach to the Middle East, although it seems easy to predict, is: up in the air. Staffing will be particularly important in how the second Trump administration deals with conflicts in the region.
Hook, a former lawyer, worked as director of policy planning at the State Department during the first Trump transition, and helped oust Michael Lutney, then the US special envoy to Syria, because Lutney said, “Syria is This is because he believed that he was “lost”. to 2019 report According to the State Department’s Office of Inspector General. (The inspector general investigated Latney’s demotion due to ethnic bias after discovering a memo from Hook about Latney that said he was “anti-strike. Palestinian Arab. Not friendly to Israel.”)
Joel Rayburn has replaced Mr. Ratney as special envoy to Syria. of wall street journal have explained As part of a group of military veterans “trying to contain Iranian power in the Middle East.” Well, Rayburn. tried to turn It turned the US-led coalition against Islamic State into a weapon against the Syrian government, an ally of Iran and Russia. he worked closely together I worked on this project with a former ambassador. James Jeffrey infamously admitted to playing “.shell gameThis is to hide the number of US troops stationed in Syria from President Trump.
In recent months, Rayburn has Post with pleasure What does the Israeli war mean to him? reshaping lebanon and to “”checkmate“Iran.
Hook himself ended up leading the ominously named Iran Action Group during the first Trump administration. Although he avoided using the exact words “regime change,” his goal was clearly in that ballpark. In February 2020 he said: said He argued that U.S. pressure could lead Iran to a “truly representative government.” he Also claimed Lawyer speaks on behalf of Iran, saying it is not entitled to claim the right of self-defense because it is not a “Westphalian” nation They are not a real country with real sovereignty.
Hooked in August 2020 sat on the panel Haley and former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) will discuss the upcoming election with the hawkish non-nuclear group Iran Anti-Nuclear Alliance. Haley argued that many Democrats agree with hard-line policies, and Lieberman said she was “optimistic that this regime in Tehran will collapse on its own,” but Hook has since become very stale. The following predictions were made. “The greatest threat to our allies and partners in the region is not the Palestinian-Israeli conflict facing our partners in the region.”
Today, Mr. Trump reportedly considering Hook for Secretary of State. The reported list of candidates also includes President Trump’s former national security adviser; Robert O’Brien. Sen. bill hagerty (R-TN); Sen. marco rubio (Republican-Florida); former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy; and Trump’s former jack-of-all-trades; Richard “Rick” Grenell.
Pompeo may have pulled out of the race at the last minute. in Broadcast on October 29th podcast’s honestlyRecorded days before the election, conservative journalist Ben Shapiro said it was “most likely” that Pompeo would return to power. “I know exactly the people he’s talking to. I’m not speculating about that,” Shapiro insisted. If that’s true, it’s not surprising. Unlike Ms. Haley, who ran against Mr. Trump in the 2024 primary, Ms. Pompeo is explained as a “legendary” Trump sycophant and “heat-seeking missile to Trump’s ass.”
But a few days after the election, many people in the Republican camp started saying, push back He has vehemently opposed Pompeo in public. tech eyeInvestors David Sachs and Donald Trump Jr. also pushed back against Pompeo privately. According to to drop site newsThe newspaper reports that Pompeo has completed jobs at a Ukrainian telecommunications company (which reminded Republicans of the Hunter Biden nepotism scandal) and Nippon Steel (which went against President Trump’s protectionist policies). . The pressure seemed to be working.
Three of the remaining candidates, O’Brien, Rubio, and Hagerty, are traditional Republican hawks. (Mr. Rayburn, the Iran-obsessed Syria envoy, worked in Mr. Hagerty’s office after leaving the administration.) Mr. Ramaswamy is rather dovish, at least as far as the Middle East is concerned. When he ran for president, he said He would “use our military to destroy Mexican drug cartels.” Grenell, who has served as special envoy to several European countries and acting director of national intelligence, is difficult to read.
At this year’s Republican National Convention, Grenell said that the U.S.intervened in the affairs of other countries“It’s been too long. And he helped me.” Lead support efforts for President Trump to anti-war Arab American voters Grenell in Michigan approval Abed Ayoub, director of the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee; “We need people who will do the hard work of digging for peace, meeting, listening and demanding peace,” Grenell said. told the audience At a Yemeni restaurant in Michigan.
But Mr. Grenell also helped promote the very same kind of foreign intervention he denounced. During the 2020 agreement negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia, he inserted: weird laundry list Political concerns within the United States. And as U.S. Ambassador to Germany, he I tried Dragoon German companies to join economic campaign against Iran. Grenell criticized Democrats after leaving office. friendly to iran and swore This is to “help remove Iran from Syria.”
His ability to be all things to all people may be Grenell’s greatest strength in the post-election demolition. Hawkish Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and dovish Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) I support both Grenell will assume the role of administrator.
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Rep. Mike Walz (R-Fla.) have been nominated for defense secretary. List of reported candidates. Both are relatively hawkish. Rogers is attacked fellow Republicans He called opposition to U.S. military aid to Ukraine “ignorant” and “stupid.” During the first Trump administration, when Trump was negotiating withdrawal from the Afghanistan war, Walz voted for a tie playing card hand, are discussing Afghanistan is a strategic territory between Iran, Russia and China that has been “fought for and bought for treasure and blood,” he said.
Why all the diet neocons and other conflict enthusiasts? That’s partly due to the reality of Republican staffing. anything Anti-war and anti-interventionist sentiments The Republican base, which still has a large number of strong candidates for office, is dominated by alumni of the George W. Bush administration and its professionals. establishment think tanka think tank particularly obsessed with the Middle East.
President Trump also claimed that he was intentionally surrounded by hawks as part of the attack. good cop, bad cop strategy. He said this at a rally in Michigan last month. called His former National Security Adviser John Bolton is a useful idiot. “I was with foreign leaders and I didn’t even have to be tough because they said, ‘That idiot, John Bolton is crazy, he’s just like Dick Cheney. We put them in the Middle East, right? Trump is going to war with us,” Trump said. “And you know what’s going to happen? They’re going to give me everything I want, because that guy’s a crazy job.”
But it’s difficult to create something but Hawkish policies from an administration full of hawkish policymakers. During the first Trump administration, libertarian Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and French President Emmanuel Macron tried to get Trump to meet with Iran’s foreign minister on two separate occasions. According to his memoirs, Mr. Bolton reacted violently and even resigned in protest. the room where it happened. Bolton got what he wanted. President Trump said,new and permanent deal” and Iranian officials were open to talks, but President Trump never actually negotiated directly with Iranian officials.
A similar story seemed likely to unfold during President Trump’s meeting with North Korea. In 2018 and 2019, the president did He succeeded in holding several direct talks with the North Korean leader. Mr. Bolton threw a wrench into the factory. Interview April 2018Regarding North Korea, he said, “We are considering the Libyan model.” Of course, the idea that it would end like Libya, which descended into civil war and whose leaders were tortured to death; rebels backed by the US rear Signing a nuclear deal with Washington was worrying for the North Korean leadership. threatened to go wild About negotiation.
When President Trump fired Bolton in September 2019, he cited his “Libya model” remarks as one of the main reasons. President Trump: “When John Bolton talked about the Libya model, we took a huge step backwards.” complained To all journalists. The president claimed he told Bolton, “Many people, myself included, disagree with some of your tactics and ideas. I wish you the best of luck, but I want you to submit your resignation.”
Mr. Trump may believe that having someone like Mr. Bolton around him will give him more leverage at the negotiating table. But if the hawks have their way, there will be little left on the negotiating table.
