The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) building in Beijing, China, on Friday, Nov. 8, 2024.
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China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged Friday, following sweeping monetary easing measures rolled out last month, and as a trade deal with the U.S. eases some growth concerns.
The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and 5-year LPR at 3.5%, according to a statement Friday, in line with Reuters poll estimates.
Last month, Chinese authorities cut the lending rates for the first time since October by 10 basis points, in their bid to cushion the impact from trade tensions with Washington. A slew of commercial banks also trimmed their deposit rates to protect their net interest margin.
LPR, normally charged to banks’ best clients, is calculated based on a survey of dozens of designated commercial banks that submit proposed rates to the central bank.
The 1-year LPR influences corporate and most household loans in China, while the 5-year LPR serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates.
Trade-war fears have receded to some extent after U.S. and Chinese trade representatives earlier this month agreed to honor the consensus reached in Geneva in May, allowing for rare earth and tech trade between the two countries while suspending prohibitive levels of tariffs on each other.
Chinese offshore yuan, which has strengthened over 2% this year, last traded at 7.1805 against the U.S. dollar, regaining ground after weakening to a record low of 7.4287 in early April when U.S. President Donald Trump slapped an eye-watering 145% tariffs on the Chinese imports.
“With the renminbi currently experiencing reduced foreign exchange pressure, the PBOC is likely to enjoy greater latitude for future policy maneuvering,” said Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at CUHK Business School.
The trade truce has allowed some breathing space for Beijing to step in to support its currency, while raising hopes that any hit to the economy will be smaller than previously expected, according to Barclays.
Citing the improved near-term growth outlook, Nomura trimmed its rate-cut forecast for the fourth quarter this year to 10 basis points from 15 basis points, while retaining estimates for a 50-basis-point cut in the reserve requirement ratio.
While in the near term, Chinese authorities are likely to exercise “limited urgency” in rolling out additional fiscal stimulus, Beijing might be compelled to ramp up policy support in the second half of this year as effects from businesses’ frontloading temper, Nomura economists said.
Recent remarks from Chinese policymakers also suggest a “strong degree of satisfaction” with the current stance and outcomes of China’s monetary policy, Pang added.
The officials are increasingly inclined to place interest rate cuts and other monetary tools in a more “restrained, supporting role,” while exploring alternative avenues to stimulate economic growth, Pang added.
Zhu Hexin, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said Wednesday at a high-profile financial forum in Shanghai that China’s ability to counter forex market volatility has improved.
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng also stressed Beijing’s ambition to expand the international use of the digital yuan and called for a multi-polar global currency system.
