Apple Inc. AAPL has had a bruising begin to 2025, with its inventory down about 18% year-to-date and underperforming the broader inventory market by 22%—its worst half-year stretch since 2013.
However as July kicks off, buyers could discover a surprisingly bullish sign in an sudden place: the calendar.
Why Has Apple Struggled So A lot In 2025?
The primary half of the yr was outlined by an ideal storm for Apple—commerce tensions, delays in product innovation and a rising AI hole all chipped away at investor confidence.
One of many largest headwinds got here from President Donald Trump‘s renewed tariff agenda. In 2024, Apple generated 64% of its complete income from abroad, with Better China and Europe being amongst its most worthwhile areas. However in early 2025, trade-related uncertainty soured client sentiment overseas, particularly in China.
The numbers affirm it: within the first quarter of 2025, Apple’s income from Better China dropped 13% year-over-year to $16.37 billion, down from $18.25 billion throughout the identical quarter of 2024. Native rivals, comparable to Huawei and Xiaomi, gained market share, whereas demand for iPhones softened.
Then got here Apple’s AI drawback. Whereas Microsoft Corp. MSFT, Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, and Nvidia Corp. NVDA captured market buzz with new AI-driven options and merchandise, Apple provided few particulars.
With no agency AI roadmap and delays across the iPhone 17 and the Imaginative and prescient Professional worldwide rollout, many buyers started rotating out of Apple into higher-growth tech names like Nvidia, Palantir Applied sciences Inc. PLTR Meta Platforms Inc. META and Broadcom Inc. AVGO
Can Apple Flip Issues Round In July?
On the floor, Apple appears out of favor. However dig into the seasonality, and July might supply the sort of bullish argument that flips the narrative.
Apple’s seasonal beneficial properties in July are unmatched. Over the previous 20 years, the inventory has ended July increased 17 occasions, with a median return of seven.6%.
Much more spectacular, Apple is driving a 9-year successful streak in July. One of the best performances got here in 2022 (+18.9%) and 2006 (+18.6%).
Increase the scope to 30 years, and the sign stays intact: Apple averaged a 7.3% achieve in July, with a 77% win price (23 optimistic closes out of 30).
The most important drawdowns occurred in 2001 (-19.2%), 2002 (-13.9%), and 2008 (-5.1%)—however these have been years outlined by broader market crises.
Extra not too long ago, pullbacks have been minor, like -3.3% in 2015 or -0.6% in 2004.
Apple’s relative efficiency versus the S&P 500 in July has been optimistic in 77% of the previous 30 years, with a median outperformance of 5.8%.
No different S&P 500 inventory has matched that consistency or magnitude over the identical interval.
Briefly, Apple hasn’t simply risen in July—it is crushed the market in July, time and time once more. And with sentiment scraping cycle lows in 2025, historical past suggests July has typically been Apple’s golden window for a rebound.
| Yr | Apple July Return (%) | AAPL vs. S&P 500 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 27.12 | +23.24 |
| 1995 | -3.10 | -6.08 |
| 1996 | 4.76 | +9.78 |
| 1997 | 22.81 | +13.91 |
| 1998 | 20.70 | +22.12 |
| 1999 | 20.24 | +24.22 |
| 2000 | -2.98 | -1.37 |
| 2001 | -19.18 | -18.13 |
| 2002 | -13.88 | -6.53 |
| 2003 | 10.60 | +8.83 |
| 2004 | -0.61 | +2.91 |
| 2005 | 15.87 | +11.84 |
| 2006 | 18.67 | +18.07 |
| 2007 | 7.96 | +11.53 |
| 2008 | -5.07 | -4.13 |
| 2009 | 14.72 | +6.80 |
| 2010 | 2.27 | +8.85 |
| 2011 | 16.33 | +18.88 |
| 2012 | 4.58 | +3.28 |
| 2013 | 14.12 | +8.74 |
| 2014 | 2.87 | +4.45 |
| 2015 | -3.29 | -5.16 |
| 2016 | 9.01 | +3.75 |
| 2017 | 3.27 | +1.96 |
| 2018 | 2.80 | +3.58 |
| 2019 | 7.64 | +1.40 |
| 2020 | 16.51 | +6.08 |
| 2021 | 6.50 | +2.37 |
| 2022 | 18.86 | +9.92 |
| 2023 | 1.28 | +3.06 |
| 2024 | 5.44 | +1.18 |
| Common achieve | 7.3% | 5.8% |
| Win ratio | 77% | 71% |
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