As the debate over U.S. trade policy continues, politicians and commentators often claim that the public supports tariffs and other protectionist measures such as those introduced by the Trump and Biden administrations. A new report from the Cato Institute finds that: voteBut a more complicated picture emerges: Americans may like the idea of tariffs and “Buy American” policies, but their support shrinks when they face higher prices and other negative consequences.
This disconnect between abstract preferences and real-world actions with concrete downsides calls into question the protectionist discourse that currently dominates both sides of the political aisle.
The survey, conducted by YouGov, involved 2,000 Americans. The great thing about this survey is that it does two things well: It asks people what they think about a particular policy. It then asks them again, in light of the actual costs and consequences of that policy, as predicted by hard research. The different answers to those two questions give us a much better sense of how Americans feel on an issue than most public opinion polls.
Economists understand that tariffs ultimately increase the price of the goods they impose. A tariff is a tax on imported goods. This tax is paid by consumers. Americans must either bear the extra cost for the same imported goods or pay a higher price for domestically produced substitutes (which may also be of lower quality because producers are protected from foreign competition).
Polls reveal how Americans’ initial support for protectionist measures crumbles when faced with the idea of rising prices. For example, when asked if they would support tariffs on imported blue jeans, 62% initially favor such measures to increase domestic production and jobs. But when the price increase from these tariffs amounts to just $10, the majority turns against them. When the price increase reaches $50, a staggering 87% oppose the tariffs.
This price sensitivity also extends to “Buy American” sentiment: 75 percent of Americans would prefer domestically produced products, all else being equal, while 51 percent would choose a cheaper foreign product of comparable quality. Even more striking, 70 percent would not pay even a $10 premium for an American-made frying pan, and 76 percent intentionally did not purchase any American-made products in the week prior to the survey.
These survey results expose a serious flaw in the arguments in favor of protectionist policies: Americans may agree with the abstract concept of supporting domestic industry, but they vote with their purse strings for the most affordable goods, regardless of country of origin.
As policymakers from both parties continue to repeat protectionist rhetoric and tout protectionist policies, it’s crucial to face reality. The Trump-era tariffs, which the Biden Administration has largely maintained, were sold to the public as a way to restore manufacturing jobs and counter China’s economic influence. But polls suggest that support for tariffs is likely to plummet once Americans feel the pain of rising prices.
The poll reveals two other truths that populist politicians would prefer to ignore: First, most Americans are not as obsessed with trade as politicians are. In fact, only 1 percent of Americans consider trade a top priority. Second, 66 percent believe that global trade benefits the U.S. economy, and 58 percent correctly assess that global trade leads to higher standards of living. In fact, 63 percent support increased U.S. trade engagement.
So what do we do going forward? First, we need honest and clear communication about the trade-offs involved in trade policy. Policymakers need to recognize that protectionist measures lead to higher consumer prices. The burden is on policymakers to convince us that benefiting certain industries is worth it.
Second, if the goal is to support American workers and industries, we should explore alternatives that don’t directly raise consumer prices, including deregulating manufacturing and reforming capital gains taxes to boost domestic investment and American productivity without relying on trade barriers.
Third, we need to improve public education on trade issues. The more Americans understand the complexities of global trade and how it affects their daily lives, the better prepared they will be to evaluate policy proposals and hold their representatives accountable.
Finally, policymakers should pay attention to what Americans do, not just what they say. This poll clearly shows that when push comes to shove, Americans will prioritize affordable goods over protectionist ideals. Trade policies that ignore this fact are likely to face significant backlash once their effects are felt in the markets.
In an increasingly interconnected world, navigating the complicated waters of global trade is crucial for policies to reflect reality, rather than clinging to protectionist myths that don’t match the actual behavior and preferences of Americans.
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