In depth analysis: Putin’s ceasefire may be a ploy – but it’s also a moment of truth with plenty at stake
By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor, in Kyiv
Donald Trump has a soft spot for military spectacles and autocrats.
He will be looking on with envy as Vladimir Putin parades both tomorrow in Moscow, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping already in Russia’s capital to join Victory Day events in Red Square.
European allies of Ukraine will be watching nervously, wary of anything that could upturn the delicate quest for peace.
Trump’s patience for peddling his much vaunted ‘peace deal’ has been wearing thin, and allies had feared Ukraine could be punished for it.
That would have been grotesquely unfair, of course.
Ukraine has bent over backwards to accommodate Trump’s one-sided diplomacy that has so far seemed to favour the aggressor in this obscene war.
True, the Trump proposal doesn’t agree to Russian annexation of all the land already taken by force and stops short of ordering the complete demilitarisation of Ukraine – but otherwise the proposals are pretty much everything that Moscow has asked for.
Out of his depth and lost in the rough?
The deal is being pushed by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s golf partner-turned-chief negotiator, a man regarded by diplomats as out of his depth and lost in the rough when it comes to the art of statecraft.
Like his president, Witkoff has a history of doing business with Russian oligarchs, an apparently starry-eyed view of the Russian leader and has called Ukraine a “false country”.
Witkoff and Trump have so far given Putin the benefit of the doubt, but a moment of truth is approaching.
While Ukraine has agreed to a longer ceasefire in principle, Vladimir Putin will not.
Ukraine’s European allies feared Trump was about to despair of progress, blame Ukraine and take US military support with him.
Then came the minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine.
The breakthrough gave the US president something to show for his efforts and assuaged his desire for some kind of deal.
He seems to have moved on, for now at least, and approved the first $50m of arms sales to Ukraine.
But these remain a tense few days ahead, with plenty at stake.
Putin’s ‘pointless pause’ could risk escalation
Putin’s self-declared three-day ceasefire raises the spectre paradoxically of escalation, if either side breaks it – and both have accused the other of violations already.
The Russian lull is seen here in Kyiv as little more than a ploy.
If the Russian leader were serious about giving peace a chance, they say, he would have signed up to the permanent ceasefire being proposed by the Trump team.
Besides, Russia broke the last truce in Easter as soon as it had begun and used it to carry out surveillance and reinforcement operations, says Kyiv.
Why risk another pointless pause that is exploited by the invaders?
If Russia plays the same games this time and Ukraine retaliates, there could be a significant escalation.
Likewise, with any Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow during Victory Day.
Any major flare-up will not be looked on favourably by the US president if it upstages his first trip abroad this presidency, a three-day tour of the Middle East.
Can Europe fill vacuum left by Trump?
For now, his attention is not so much on the Ukraine conflict, and he is no longer issuing threats to walk away and stop supporting the Ukrainians.
That will be a relief here in the Ukrainian capital. They would be unwise to do anything to reengage him, for now at least.
Their European allies, though, know US involvement in this war appears to be receding.
Can they fill the vacuum?
This week, they remember the sacrifices made to bring peace and security to their continent 80 years ago.
Can they find the political will and unity to do so again, even without the US?
Astonishingly, given all we have been through, that is still an open question.
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