There is a critical question hanging over the events of the past few days.
Behind the chest-thumping from Donald Trump, and the bewilderment beyond at his statecraft-by-social-media, doubts have now reached fever pitch about the success of the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.
Leaks from the US Defence Department suggest the bunker busting bombs dropped on Iran’s three nuclear enrichment sites might only have set the country’s nuclear capabilities back by months.
Pic: Reuters
“We were assuming that the damage was going to be much more significant than this assessment is finding,” said one of three sources, speaking to NBC News.
“This assessment is already finding that these core pieces are still intact. That’s a bad sign for the overall programme.”
NBC News has spoken to three sources – all of whom say that the initial assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency has concluded that the US airstrikes were not as effective as Mr Trump claimed.
Similar leaks were made to The New York Times, The Washington Post and CNN.
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Why did Trump lash out at Iran and Israel?
Responding to the CNN leak, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community.”
She added: “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme. Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000lb bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
In his address to the nation on Saturday night, Mr Trump had said: “I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has also dismissed the leaks, saying: “Based on everything we have seen – and I’ve seen it all – our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.
“Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target – and worked perfectly.
“The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran, so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission.”
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Iran’s nuclear capabilities
Battle Damage Assessments (BDAs) take a long time to be close to conclusive and require extensive intelligence analysis.
Speaking to Sky News, former director of the CIA and top US General David Petraeus cautioned about drawing any conclusions at this stage.
“Well, the truth is, it is just too soon. And those who are leaking should know that it takes a long time to do the battle damage assessment. And those who have actually pushed back in very conclusive ways also probably should have wait for the full results,” Gen Petraeus said.
“This is a very painstaking process. It’s an effort by the overall intelligence community, not just Defence Intelligence Agency. In fact, the CIA would be the lead in this effort to mine all sources of intelligence, imagery, intelligence of all types, signals, cyber, even open-source intelligence.”
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Beyond the debate over the extent of the damage, questions remain over whether Iran might have managed to move equipment including centrifuges. Critically too, the whereabouts of about 400kg of highly enriched uranium is unknown.
The classified assessment of the military’s operation in Iran has been transmitted to Congress and has been viewed by some senators in a secure location, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation.
“I’ve reviewed the classified material,” Democratic Party Senator Tim Kaine, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said.
“I’m a little bit disappointed that my colleagues went and looked at it and mainly started talking about it publicly. That’s not we’re supposed to do with a classified report,” he added.
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Iran ‘not at all’ thankful for Trump
Speaking on Sunday to NBC’s Meet The Press, Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon insisted Iran’s nuclear capability had been dramatically set back.
“I think it’s still very early to jump into conclusions. We have to wait for the assessment. I can tell you one thing for sure. If you look where Iran was 12 days ago and where they are today, you understand that both Israel and the US were able to degrade the capabilities, push them back decades, and if we had an imminent threat, it doesn’t exist anymore.”
