The first tropical storm of 2025 formed in the Pacific Ocean, off the southwestern coast of Mexico, on Thursday.
According to a National Hurricane Center advisory issued Thursday afternoon, Tropical Storm Alvin will continue to be in warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear over the next 12 hours or so, which are essential conditions for the formation and intensification of tropical storms.
Tropical Storm Alvin is expected to continue moving to the northwest on Thursday, then turn slightly more north-northwest on Friday. By Friday night, Alvin is expected to begin moving northward and into areas with cooler sea temperatures and higher wind shear, which could weaken the storm.
As of Thursday afternoon, the NHC warns that surf swells generated by Alvin will affect areas of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula over the next couple of days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in the water.
This is the first named tropical storm in the northern hemisphere this year. A “tropical storm” is classified as a more advanced tropical cyclone, with winds up to 73 miles per hour. The NHC gives names to tropical storms and hurricanes to make it easier to identify them if multiple storms are happening at once.
Where is Tropical Storm Alvin and what is its path?
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
As of 4 p.m. ET Thursday:
Alvin is located around 565 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
The tropical storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
Sustained winds are expected to strengthen Thursday night but potentially weaken by late Friday.
The storm is moving northwest at 12 mph and is expected to continue in this direction Thursday, followed by a northward turn on Friday and Saturday.
The NHC reports there is “high confidence” that the storm will weaken before it nears the Baja California peninsula.
Predictions for the 2025 hurricane season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season last week, anticipating an above-average season with roughly 13 to 19 storms, six to 10 of which will be hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes (a Category 3, 4 or 5). Active hurricane season typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October.
Hurricane season is expected to be above average because of a number of factors, NOAA reported, including warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and high forecasts for weak wind shear.
