All of the upside potential from artificial intelligence demand for Nvidia may already be priced into the stock, according to Seaport Research Partners. The firm initiated research coverage of the market bellwether and AI darling with a rare sell rating on Wednesday, alongside a $100 per share price target. Seaport’s forecast implies more than 8% downside from Tuesday’s $109.02 close. Shares have pulled back more than 21% in 2025, and are almost 31% below the January all-time high, a stark contrast to the massive runup Nvidia saw in the heyday of the AI boom. Jensen Huang’s company soared 239% in 2023, followed by another 171% gain in 2024. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia stock in 2025. But this year has been a different story, as macroeconomic concerns tied to President Donald Trump’s lofty tariffs have led to forecasts that the U.S. is headed toward a recession. Even without a trade war, however, some cracks had already been showing in the AI trade, with investors closely scrutinizing the amount of investment by companies such as Microsoft , Meta , Alphabet and Amazon on AI projects and the rise of China’s cheaper large language model, DeepSeek. Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg said Nvidia faces a more difficult time finding a similar growth runway as it enjoyed in recent years. “Nvidia is one of the leading beneficiaries of the current AI spending boom, but its prospects are well understood and largely priced into the stock,” Goldberg said. “AI may do well this year, but NVDA is likely to underperform relative to peers.” The analyst added that there is a growing chorus of questions pertaining to the actual use case and utility of AI, as “significant” investments in AI to date have not yet yielded soaring profits. Meanwhile, competition continues to mount. “[There’s] strong momentum behind hyperscalers’ internal Nvidia alternatives — Nvidia’s largest customers are all looking to design their own chips,” he added. Seaport’s take on Nvidia stock is at odds with other analysts on Wall Street. Seaport is the only sell rating on Nvidia, according to TipRanks. About 87% of analysts polled by FactSet carry a buy rating on Nvidia, with their consensus price targets calling for nearly 52% upside in the stock.
